International: Bulgaria – Poland: 08/08/2010
August 7, 2010 in Sport Previews
[col1]Bulgaria – Poland
Pick: Poland ML Result: PENDING
[col2]1152580[col3]
Stake: 6 Odds: 2.40
Bookmaker: BetClick vCash: No
Third round of Euro 2011 Qualifiers.
Bulgaria was free in last round so their record is 1-0 after a win in Portugal. Poland’s record is 1-1 after a heavy loss in Georgia and an easy win against Portugal at home.
I think the odds for this match are wrong and bookies underestimate Poland because of the awful start of their qualifying campaign. However, they have bounced back after that loss and lifted their team spirit and self confidence after a confortable win against Portugal at home, 86-64. Their best player Lampe’s statement after that game says it all: “Much has changed, and it is finally clear that this is a team”.
This team is a bit different than Polish team in last years Eurobasket. Logan and Ignerski aren’t playing but they will be replaced by another American, Thomas Kelati and a young 22yo naturalized Albanian, Dardan Berisha.
Bulgarians’ missings are much more important. Rowland, Evtimov and Stoykov are gone and their new American is Earl Calloway who used to play for Cibona. I think they are much weaker than last year and should by no means be favourites against Poland. They lack the size in the paint (tallest player is 2.09 compared to Poland’s Lampe and Gortat with 2.15 and 2.13) and they rely too much on their shooters. If they don’t have a good day Bulgarians will have big problems.
I expect a strong start from Poland, and although it won’t be easy I think they will win this game by ~10 points.
The bookies already realised their mistake and started to slash the odds (was @ 2.55, now only around 2.30 while BetClic still has 2.40). I expect the odds to be around evens by tomorrow as should’ve been the case from the start. There’s a great value in these odds and I …
Source: International: Bulgaria – Poland: 08/08/2010
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